Historically, midterm elections are often treated as a referendum on the sitting president. And regarding that, the midterms come at a bad time for Trump. His current approval rating sits about 37%.

With this in mind, Hull expects the pattern to hold. ‘When we look at past midterm elections, it is very likely that voters will express their disappointment with the incumbent president. For instance, in 2006, when many Americans were frustrated with George W. Bush’s failures in Iraq, Republicans got a thumping in the midterms. It is likely that this will happen again, not least because Trump insists that every moment in the political cycle is always about him. A more party-oriented president might keep a low profile during a period of unpopularity. Instead, Trump has repeatedly told supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot.’

Economy as key theme

The economy is likely to be the key issue in the midterms. The United States has experienced significant inflation in recent years, with petrol prices in particular rising sharply. In addition, the job market has stagnated, while higher interest rates have made borrowing money for loans and mortgages more expensive for Americans.

‘In focus groups and polls, voters put the cost of living and the economy at the top of their list of concerns’, says Hull. ‘This is particulary in these elections, because in 2024, Trump ran on pledges to make everyday life more affordable for ordinary Americans. In practice, prices have gone in the other direction. In the meantime, the president has gone on a spending spree in Washington, D.C., with plans for a White House ballroom and triumphal arch. And he has dismissed the “affordability crisis” as a hoax.’

In the midterm elections, national and local issues are closely intertwined. Hull points to Michigan as an example. The state is suffering economically as a result of the tariffs imposed on Canadian imports. Trade with Canada accounts for about 40 per cent of Michigan’s exports, meaning that the president’s aggressive tariff policies are causing considerable economic difficulties for the state.

According to Hull, in addition to economic developments under Trump, there is another factor at play that could prove detrimental to the Republicans. ‘At key moments in his political career, Trump has been able to message empathy for working-class Americans. That was the case in 2016 when he visited Appalachia, for example, and told underemployed miners that he would bring back jobs in coal. But he has done much less in the last two years to resonate emotionally with working Americans, still less to help them in practice.’

Texas and Kansas: Could Republican strongholds become battlegrounds?

In presidential elections, swing states often determine the outcome by tipping the balance in the Electoral College. The stakes are different in the midterms, but the underlying political geography still matters: competitive Senate races in traditionally Republican states could help determine which party controls Congress. Texas and Kansas are two states to watch, where Democrats appear to have an opportunity to challenge the Republican dominance that has long defined their politics.

Texas, in particular, has been at the centre of speculation about a potential Democratic breakthrough for years. Despite significant demographic changes, the state has remained reliably Republican, partly because Latino voters have proved less consistently Democratic than party strategists once anticipated.

‘This year, though, there is an unusually positive confluence of circumstances for Democrats in Texas. First, Latino support for Trump, which was up in 2024, seems to have shrunk, due to the state of the economy and ICE’s violent methods’, explains Hull. ‘Second, James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for Senate, has galvanised supporters as a populist and practising Presbyterian who can boast a bipartisan record from his time in the state legislature.'

'Meanwhile, Talarico’s Republican opponent Ken Paxton is a flawed candidate. Paxton is the Texas Attorney General (the state’s chief lawyer) but has been charged with fraud. And last year his wife filed for divorce on “biblical grounds” – that’s a red flag in a conservative state. Most importantly, perhaps, in a country where money plays a pivotal role in elections, Democratic donors nationwide are flooding Talarico’s campaign with cash.’

Voting rights and the integrity of elections

Beyond the immediate struggle for congressional control, the midterms will test the resilience of American democratic institutions. ‘In the southern United States, the consequences of a Supreme Court decision weakened protections associated with the Voting Rights Act of 1965 – a foundational piece of civil rights legislation. This has encouraged some southern legislatures to redraw congressional maps to effectively deprive Black Americans of their voices.’

Hull also states that the role of the Justice Department will be important in the run-up to election day. ‘The department has intensified its scrutiny of state election systems, including in Alaska and California. On one level it’s a sign that Donald Trump and his allies are anticipating a very bad election night for Republicans. But on another, it’s a sign that the president may be unwilling, yet again, to accept election results as legitimate if they reflect poorly on him.’

A verdict on Trump, but not necessarily Trumpism

The November midterms could produce a major shift in Washington, particularly if Democrats regain control of one or both chambers of Congress. Such a result would constrain the administration’s legislative agenda and give the opposition greater power to investigate, scrutinise and challenge the president.

But the broader political meaning of the results will require careful interpretation. ‘If the elections swing dramatically in Democrats’ favour, some analysts may construe them as the moment when Americans turned their backs on the right-wing populist politics. But there is a danger of over-interpreting the significance’, says Hull. ‘These elections will be less of a referendum on everything Trump represents, and more a mark of many Americans’ dissatisfaction with some very specific things: the war against Iran, the violent tactics of ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement), and above all the high cost of living.’